Methodology
High-quality quantitative forecasting relies on a suitable methodology selected based on the historical data of each metric. GIV 2025 utilizes an approach that combines trend extrapolation and time series forecasting. A regression model based on historical data and business development patterns is the first choice in analysis. If the forecast results obtained from a simple linear regression model are not ideal, then the use of a multiple linear regression model or a time series forecast method is considered.
Research Procedures
01
Acquisition of historical data of metrics
02
Analysis of historical data and initial selection of simple linear regression models
03
Selection and optimization of alternative simple linear regression models
04
Development and optimization of a Polynomial regression model
05
General forecasts incorporating the time series analysis model
Definitions of the Metrics
All things sensing
All things Connected
All things intelligent
Dimension Macro Vision Metric Description 2025 Forecast
All things sensing More devices that sense Number of personal smart devices globally All types of smart devices used by individuals (including the following) 40 bil
Number of smartphones Number of smartphones globally 8 bil
Smart home devices Devices that support a smart home using ICT, sensing, control, audio, video, and other technologies 21 bil
Number of wearables Smart devices that can be worn on the body 8 bil
Number of tablets and PCs Including tablets, laptops, and other personal computers 3 bil
Transformation in how things sense Number of individual VR/AR users Number of individual users of VR/AR-like smart headgear 440 mil
Dimension Macro Vision Metric Description 2025 Forecast
All things connected More connections Number of connections around the world Total number of devices with Internet connectivity around the world 100 bil
Number of people using mobile communications Number of people around the world using cellular mobile communication networks 6.5 bil
Number of people connected to the Internet Number of people around the world with any type of access to the Internet 6.2 bil
Number of individual connections in emerging nations Number of individual connections (excluding M2M) in the 147 emerging nations and regions 7.4 bil
Penetration rate of home broadband globally Percentage of the number of home broadband users with fixed network access or WTTx access in the total number of global homes 75%
Faster connections Penetration rate of gigabit home broadband Percentage of the number of home broadband users with network access speeds exceeding 1 Gbit/s in the total number of global homes 55%
Coverage rate of gigabit mobile communications networks Percentage of total population with access to gigabit mobile communications networks (including 4.5G and 5G) 30%
More data traffic Average data usage per user per day Communications data usage on average per user per day, including cellular mobile networks and fixed networks 4G
Average mobile network data usage per user per day Average data usage on cellular mobile communications networks per user per day 1G
Percentage of video in total data usage Percentage of individual communications data usage accounted for by video, excluding industry video 89%
Average mobile video DOU per person Average mobile communications video data usage of Internet users per person per month, excluding industry video 15 GB
Cloud-based sharing Cloud service utilization rate amongst enterprises Percentage of enterprises using cloud services (IaaS/PaaS/SaaS) 100%
Percentage of enterprise applications on the cloud Percentage of enterprise applications that have been deployed on the cloud 85%
Percentage of computing on cloud data centers Percentage of data center computing load carried by cloud computing across global data centers 90%
Percentage of storage on cloud data centers Percentage of all data center storage capacity held on cloud storage at data centers globally 92%
Green connections Carbon footprint per connection in the ICT industry Amount of carbon emissions per connection across the global ICT industry every year 15 Kg
Global power saving brought by the ICT industry Global power savings in all industries generated by ICT 4.6 PWh
Global emission reduction brought by the ICT industry Global carbon emission reductions in all industries generated by ICT 6 Gt
Dimension Macro Vision Metric Description 2025 Forecast
All things intelligent Monetizing data Annual increase in data volume globally Annual volume of data generated and stored globally 180 ZB
Enterprise data utilization rate Percentage of data that is analyzed and used in the data available to enterprises globally 80%
Intelligentization of services Utilization rate of AI by enterprises Percentage of enterprises that have applied AI technology in their business, operational management, and other processes 86%
Penetration rate of smart personal assistants Number of users with smart personal assistants as a percentage of all users of smart devices 90%
Penetration rate of smart home robots Total sales volume of smart home robots globally as a percentage of all homes globally 12%
Examples of forecasting

Example 1: When forecasting global data volume, we used a polynomial regression model based on the historical data from institutions like IDC and Huawei, and also by incorporating the judgments of business experts at Huawei who specialized in big data. (Independent variable x being year series, R2 = 0.9962). The following figure shows this model:

Example 2: When forecasting global Internet penetration, we built a logical regression model based on the historical data from institutions like ITU and Huawei, and also by incorporating the judgments of business experts at Huawei specializing in related fields. We carried out periodic fitting to build the model, based on historical data that was generated after 2002. (Independent variable x being year series, R2 = 0.9981). The following figure shows this model:

GIV 2025

Unfolding the Industry Blueprint of an Intelligent World

GIV 2025 aims to set the direction for innovation to make the intelligent world a reality. It is designed to help industry decision-makers determine the path and pace of future growth while acting as a reference to help industries go digital. With this report, Huawei strives to lay the foundations for a fully connected, intelligent world with partners and industries.
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GIV 2025

Unfolding the Industry Blueprint of an Intelligent World

GIV 2025 aims to set the direction for innovation to make the intelligent world a reality. It is designed to help industry decision-makers determine the path and pace of future growth while acting as a reference to help industries go digital. With this report, Huawei strives to lay the foundations for a fully connected, intelligent world with partners and industries.
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