Methodology
Humankind has always been driven to explore, and bring certainty to this uncertain world. We believe that collaboration is essential for future exploration. Over the past three years, in addition to our own Huawei experts who have been building their own insights and plans for the future, our GIV@2030 research team has also been communicating extensively with industry scholars, customers, and partners. We have studied data, methodologies, and insight reports from prominent players around the world, including the United Nations, GSMA, and other third-party consulting firms. The GIV@2030 research team used trend extrapolation and time series forecasting to arrive at their findings about the future.
Huawei GIV Predictions for 2030 – L1
| No. | Indicator | Definition | Prediction for 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global connections | Total number of connected people and things worldwide | 200 billion connections |
| 2 | Wireless (cellular) connections | Total number of people and things connected through wireless (cellular) technology worldwide | 32.5 billion cellular connections 80 billion passive cellular connections |
| 3 | Gigabit/10 gigabit fiber broadband household penetration | Households using gigabit or higher fiber broadband as a proportion of total households worldwide Households using 10 gigabit fiber broadband as a proportion of total households worldwide | Gigabit or higher fiber broadband household penetration: 55% 10 gigabit fiber broadband household penetration: 23% |
| 4 | 4K/8K TV household penetration | Households with 4K/8K TVs as a proportion of total households worldwide | 4K TV household penetration: 58% 8K TV household penetration: 17% |
| 5 | IPv6 adoption | Connected devices and applications using IPv6 worldwide | 90% |
| 6 | VR/AR users | Number of VR/AR users worldwide | 1 billion |
| 7 | Robots per 10,000 workers Household robots | Number of robots per 10,000 workers Households with home robots as a proportion of total households worldwide | 390 robots per 10,000 workers
Households with home robots: 18% |
| 8 | Intelligent connected vehicle penetration | C-V2X vehicles as a proportion of total vehicles | 60% |
| 9 | Average monthly data use on wireless cellular networks per person | Average monthly data (GB) used on wireless cellular networks per person (all owned devices) | 600 GB (40-fold increase) |
| 10 | Average monthly fixed network data usage per household | Average fixed network data usage per household, per month | 1.3 TB (8-fold increase) |
| 11 | 5G private networks | Number of 5G private networks (including virtual private networks) Proportion of medium or large enterprises using 5G private networks |
Number of 5G private networks: 1 million 5G private networks penetration in medium/large enterprises: 35% |
| 12 | Gigabit/10 gigabit Wi-Fi network penetration in enterprises | Proportion of enterprises using gigabit Wi-Fi networks and 10 gigabit Wi-Fi networks | Gigabit Wi-Fi network penetration in enterprises: 50%
10 gigabit Wi-Fi network penetration in enterprises: 40% |
| 13 | FTTR/FTTD penetration | Fiber-to-the-room households as a proportion of total households worldwide/Fiber-to-the-desk enterprises as a proportion of total enterprises worldwide | Fiber-to-the-room household penetration: 31% Fiber-to-the-desk enterprise penetration: 41% |
| No. | Indicator | Definition | Prediction for 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | General computing power & AI computing power | Total general computing power of global data centers and edge servers Total AI computing power of global data centers and edge servers |
General computing power (FP32): 3.3 ZFLOPS (10-fold increase) AI computing power (FP16): 105 ZFLOPS (500-fold increase) |
| 15 | Computing as a proportion of total enterprise IT investment | Investment in general computing and AI computing servers as a proportion of total annual IT hardware investment of an enterprise (The IT hardware investment include investment into data centers, edge, and device hardware) | 32% |
| 16 | Cloud services as a proportion of total enterprise application expenditure | Proportion of enterprise application expenditure on cloud services | 87% |
| 17 | Global data volume generated annually | Total volume of data generated by all digital devices and digital instruments worldwide each year, including devices, edge, and data centers, as well as newly generated, replicated, or cloned data, back-up data, process data, and cached data. | 1 YB (23-fold increase) |
| 18 | Penetration of privacy enhancing computing technology | Proportion of scenarios where the built-in privacy computing capability of the computing system is enabled. | 50% |
| 19 | Blockchain technology penetration | Proportion of enterprises deploying blockchain technology. | 85% |
| No. | Indicator | Definition | Prediction for 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Electric vehicles as a proportion of new vehicles sold | Electric vehicles as a proportion of new vehicles sold annually | 50% |
| 21 | Autonomous vehicles as a proportion of new vehicles sold | Autonomous vehicles as a proportion of new vehicles sold annually | Global: 10%， China: 20% |
| No. | Indicator | Definition | Prediction for 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Proportion of renewables in global electricity generation | Proportion of electricity from renewables in the total electricity generated worldwide | 50% |
CGE Model
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is an economic modelling framework that incorporates both the demand and supply-side factors and uses actual economic data to estimate how an economy might react to changes in policy, technology or other external factors.
On the supply-side the CGE model allows us to model the economic impacts of productivity enhancements generated by ICT as a result is well-suited to estimate the economic impacts of ICT and and take into account the interactions and knock-on effects between its different industries.
The CGE model does include carbon accounting, as such we can demonstrate the contribution ICT adoption will have on carbon emissions and the relative carbon intensity of industry.
